The 5 Worst Investment Calls of the 21st Century (So Far)
We’re only 25 years into the 21st century, but we’ve already witnessed an impressive parade of economic upheaval: two major market crashes, a global banking collapse, a pandemic, meme-stock mania, crypto rollercoasters, and a bout of inflation that finally got central bankers moving again.
Throughout all of this, market pundits, analysts, and armchair gurus have made bold predictions — and some of them have been wildly wrong.
Here are five of the worst investment calls we've seen so far this century. Some were overconfident. Some were naive. All serve as a reminder that a healthy dose of scepticism is a key part of good investing.
5. “Oil is going to $200 a barrel!” — Goldman Sachs, 2008
In 2005, Goldman analysts suggested oil could reach $105 — which it did. Then in 2008, as prices soared past $100, analyst Arjun Murti took it further: $200 a barrel was next.
Oil peaked at $147 that summer… and promptly fell off a cliff as the financial crisis set in. It dropped below $40 by the end of 2008, and spent much of the next decade bouncing around $50–$70.
As of July 2025, Brent crude sits near $84, with no super-spike in sight. The “commodity supercycle” became more of a mild jog.
4. “Gold will hit $5,000!” — Peter Schiff, 2009 (and forever)
Since 2009, Peter Schiff has repeatedly predicted that rampant money printing and dollar devaluation would drive gold to $5,000 per ounce.
He’s half-right: inflation did rise sharply between 2021–2023. Gold surged to all-time highs in response, and as of now sits around $2,430. Not bad — but still less than halfway to the target, 16 years on.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is alive, well, and still the world’s reserve currency.
3. “Municipal bond defaults will be massive!” — Meredith Whitney, 2010
Whitney’s call on Citigroup’s near-collapse in 2007 earned her fame. But her 2010 forecast — that hundreds of billions in U.S. municipal bonds would default — missed the mark entirely.
Excluding headline cases like Detroit and Puerto Rico, municipal bonds have defaulted at a rate of just 0.2% since then. Through COVID, inflation, and rate hikes, munis have remained one of the most stable corners of the bond market.
Whitney closed her firm years ago. Muni bond investors? Still clipping coupons.
2. “Subprime will be contained.” — Ben Bernanke, 2007
In March 2007, then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke told Congress that the subprime mortgage crisis would likely be “contained”.
It wasn’t.
Within a year, Bear Stearns collapsed. Six months later, Lehman Brothers followed. The resulting crisis triggered the most severe global downturn since the Great Depression.
To Bernanke’s credit, his actions during the crisis were instrumental in the recovery. But this call remains one of the most regrettable moments in financial communication history.
1. “The housing bubble won’t crash the economy.” — Alan Greenspan, 2005
In June 2005, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan acknowledged “froth” in some housing markets, but rejected the idea of a national bubble — and confidently dismissed the chance of any major economic fallout.
The rest is history: U.S. home prices crashed, triggering a global financial crisis and nearly collapsing the banking system.
Even now, 20 years on, Greenspan’s comments remain a lesson in the dangers of denial — and in trusting too much in models, too little in common sense.
Honourable Mentions (2025 Edition)
Chamath’s SPAC mania (2020–2021): Not so much "the future" as “a footnote.”
Crypto’s world domination (2021–2025): Bitcoin soared to $120K in 2024... then dropped back to $68K. Useful asset? Yes. Fiat killer? Not yet.
Cathie Wood’s 2021 moonshots: Growth investing had a moment. Then interest rates woke up.
Final Word:
At Mitchell & Mitchell, we believe investing is about discipline, evidence, and perspective — not bold predictions or noisy headlines. When the loudest voices start making the biggest promises, that’s usually a cue to look the other way.
The 21st century has a long way to go. And there will be more big, brash forecasts. But one thing is certain: investors who focus on long-term planning and risk-managed strategies will likely avoid being someone else’s cautionary tale.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this blog is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It reflects the views of the author at the time of writing and may not reflect the most current market or regulatory developments.
Mitchell & Mitchell Asset Management is a discretionary investment manager serving professional financial planning firms. Any references to investment strategies, asset classes, or market conditions are illustrative only and should not be interpreted as a recommendation.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Clients should always seek personalised advice from a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
Mitchell & Mitchell Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
